Poll Shock: Trump Slumps To New Low

President Trump’s job approval has fallen to 31% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, the lowest of his presidency as the midterms near.

Story Snapshot

Reuters/Ipsos measured Trump’s approval at 31%, the series’ record low, down one point from the prior poll.
The four-day online survey included 1,679 adults and reported a 2-point margin of error for all adults.
Earlier Reuters/Ipsos polling showed approval stuck at 33%, signaling a steady low trend.
Low approval before midterms often hurts the president’s party, but outcomes depend on turnout and local races.

Record-Low Approval And What The Poll Measured

Reuters/Ipsos reported that 31% of Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance, marking the lowest level the poll has recorded in either of his terms. The survey ran October 16–19, included 1,679 U.S. adults, and used an online mode. Reuters said the margin of error was about 2 points for all adults and 3 points for registered voters. The result was one point below the prior Reuters/Ipsos reading and comes days before the midterm elections.

Independent coverage matched the topline finding and timing. The Hill wrote that approval fell to 31%, down a point and at a new low for both terms, based on the same October 16–19 field dates. The piece framed the number as a late slide before voting. This external confirmation supports the headline metric and helps place it in the broader news cycle as campaigns make final pushes.

Trend Signals And Issue Backdrop

Reuters polling in late summer showed approval stuck at 33%, then still at a record low in that period. That level held across multiple surveys before the October dip to 31%. In August, Reuters also found Democrats held an edge on enthusiasm, with more Democrats saying they were very eager to vote than Republicans. Independents leaned toward Democratic congressional candidates in that measure, suggesting a tough climate for the party in power.

Reuters’ election explainer outlined three issues shaping the midterms: the economy and prices, immigration and border policy, and foreign conflicts. Those pocketbook and safety concerns often drive vote choice. When approval is low, those issues can intensify voter desire for change. But issue salience varies by district, and national mood does not always map cleanly onto the House and Senate races that decide control.

What Low Approval Usually Means For Midterms

Historical research shows that presidents with weak approval often see their party lose House seats in midterms. Across 22 midterms from 1934 to 2018, the president’s party lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. Scholars connect this pattern to a “referendum” effect, where voters use midterms to balance power or signal disapproval. Still, the link is probabilistic, not a guarantee, and depends on turnout and district maps.

Trump is tanking in the polls:

Trump's approval falls to record low of 31% as midterms near, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds – https://t.co/auhGi1kczE

— Frank Amari (@FrankAmari2) October 20, 2026

The Reuters/Ipsos number is an estimate with sampling error, and it does not explain why views shifted. The poll reported a 2-point margin of error for all adults and 3 points for registered voters. That means small moves can fall within normal variation, and the cross-section does not assign causes to changes. Even so, the sustained low range across recent polls signals broad unease with national direction under unified Republican control.

Why Both Sides See A System Problem

Voters on the right and left share anger over rising costs, border strain, and a sense that leaders protect their own power. Many conservatives blame global agendas and energy rules that raise prices. Many liberals see deep inequality and less help for those in need. Both groups see a government that talks past them. The 31% approval mark reflects that cross-ideological frustration and a belief that Washington is not delivering basic results.

What To Watch Next

Watch turnout gaps, since enthusiasm can outweigh national mood in close races. Track independent voters, who often swing midterms and showed signs of favoring Democrats in Reuters’ earlier data. Follow late economic and security headlines, which can move marginal voters. Finally, compare this 31% with other national polls fielded in the same window to gauge whether the low stands alone or is part of a wider pattern this month.