Projections Show Trump with Significant Advantage Over Harris

(LibertySociety.com) – After predicting in late July that Donald Trump still maintained an advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris, election analyst Nate Silver adjusted his election forecast to call the 2024 presidential race a Toss-Up.

Silver noted in an August 1 update that Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the battleground state of Wisconsin while the vice president’s chances of taking Michigan improved to 54 percent. Harris also improved her chances of winning Pennsylvania.

According to Silver, Harris went from having a 38.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College vote to a 45 percent chance.

Based on Silver’s analysis of the polls, Harris has erased the gains Trump made after Biden’s alarming debate performance in late June and has even gained ground in some battleground states.

Silver also projected that Harris had a 53.4 percent chance of winning the national popular vote while Trump’s chances were only 46.5 percent.

The last Republican to win the White House and carry the national popular vote was President George W. Bush in 2004.

As of the end of July, Trump’s lead in the Real Clear Politics national polling average had fallen to only 1.2 points, with Trump at 47.7 percent and Harris at 46.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee on August 1 began the formal process of nominating Vice President Harris when it launched the virtual roll call vote.

The DNC opened formal voting to the convention delegates at 9:00 a.m. on Thursday, August 1 by emailing a watermarked form that delegates can return to the DNC with their vote. Delegates can also call the DNC to cast their nominating vote.

The ballots were emailed on a rolling basis over the course of several days. The final deadline to submit a vote was at 6:00 p.m. on Monday, August 5.

The DNC said it would announce the full results as soon as the voting period ended.

The outcome of the formal voting is not in doubt as Vice President Harris has already received enough support to gain the 1,976 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Nearly 3,900 Democrat delegates already said they would vote for Harris.