Iran’s Depleted Arsenal: A Risky Opening Move

(LibertySociety.com) – Iran’s war planners have calculated a devastating opening missile strategy that could temporarily cripple U.S. Gulf bases, but their depleted arsenal may force a gamble they cannot sustain.

Story Snapshot

Iran’s missile stockpile plummeted from 2,500 to roughly 1,000-1,200 after Israeli strikes destroyed production facilities in 2024 and attrition from the 2025 “12-Day War”
Strategic analysis reveals Iran would unleash short-range ballistic missiles in high-tempo salvos against Al Udeid and other Gulf bases to crater runways and strain defenses
Trump administration confirms Iran remains over a decade away from ICBMs capable of reaching the United States, though threats to regional allies and bases are immediate
Iran seeks advanced Chinese supersonic anti-ship missiles to counter U.S. naval superiority while rebuilding its depleted arsenal through underground production facilities

Iran’s Opening Salvo Strategy Targets Gulf Bases

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has refined a missile strike doctrine that prioritizes overwhelming nearby U.S. and allied bases with short-range ballistic missiles rather than attempting precision neutralization. Analysis from defense experts reveals Iran would concentrate SRBMs and cruise missiles against critical Gulf installations like Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, leveraging short flight times and reduced warning periods to maximize disruption. The strategic calculus accepts that these weapons cannot destroy American airpower but can temporarily crater runways, damage infrastructure, and delay operational tempo long enough to impose costs on intervention forces.

Depleted Arsenal Forces High-Risk Early Engagement

Israeli counterstrikes in October 2024 destroyed between 12 and 20 solid-fuel mixers essential for producing advanced medium-range missiles like the Sejjil and Kheibar Shekan, effectively paralyzing Iran’s most capable production lines. The June 2025 “12-Day War” with Israel further attrited Iran’s stockpile through sustained launches and Israeli targeting of mobile launchers, reducing total inventory to approximately half its pre-conflict levels. This depletion pressures Iranian commanders to fire massive opening salvos rapidly, betting on saturation tactics before counterstrikes eliminate remaining launchers and production capacity hidden in underground mountain facilities.

Accuracy Limitations Shape Area-Target Focus

Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles demonstrate circular error probabilities around 30 meters for systems like the Khorramshahr, sufficient for area damage against large installations but inadequate for pinpoint strikes on hardened aircraft shelters or command bunkers. Defense analysts note this accuracy profile explains Iran’s targeting doctrine emphasizing runways, fuel depots, and concentrated troop formations rather than individual aircraft or precision military assets. The regime maintains nuclear ambiguity around missiles capable of reaching 1,300 to 2,000 kilometers, covering Israel and European bases, which raises escalation risks if conventional payloads fail to achieve deterrence objectives against superior air forces.

China and Russia Enable Iranian Capabilities

Iran has moved near finalization of a deal to acquire CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles from China, a system defense experts describe as a potential game-changer against U.S. naval vessels due to its 290-kilometer range and evasion characteristics that complicate interception. Concurrently, Tehran has solicited air defense proposals from Russian and Chinese suppliers to protect rebuilding production infrastructure from the kind of strikes Israel executed in 2024. These foreign partnerships compensate for domestic production shortfalls and represent a troubling arms proliferation pattern that undermines regional stability, particularly as the Trump administration works to restore maximum pressure sanctions disrupted during the previous administration’s appeasement policies.

The Strategic Math Behind Iran’s Opening Missile Strike If a War Breaks Out (by @aalatham) https://t.co/zgwIhiZRXC

— 19FortyFive (@19_forty_five) February 25, 2026

President Trump stated on February 25, 2026, that Iran seeks missiles capable of striking American territory, though U.S. intelligence assessments project such intercontinental capabilities remain over a decade away with potential deployment of 60 ICBMs by 2035. Iran’s current medium-range arsenal already threatens every U.S. base and ally across the Middle East, a vulnerability created by years of inadequate deterrence and nuclear deal concessions that freed resources for missile development. The regime’s reported sidelining of Supreme Leader Khamenei in late February signals internal instability that could either restrain or accelerate reckless adventurism depending on succession dynamics.