(LibertySociety.com) – Polling shows that President Biden’s hold in three key battleground states could be showing signs of weakening as Donald Trump begins to make inroads in all three.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are must-win states for the president if he hopes to remain in the White House next year, especially now that polling shows Trump pulling ahead in key states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
According to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Trump currently holds a 2.6-point advantage over Biden in Arizona. In Georgia, the former president is leading Biden by 5.5 points. Meanwhile, in Nevada and North Carolina, Trump is ahead of Biden by 4.6 points and 6.1 points respectively.
An April 30 Emerson poll showed Trump narrowly leading Biden in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin for the first time. Trump had a 1-point lead over Biden in Michigan and a 2-point lead in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
However, last week’s Quinnipiac poll out of Wisconsin showed Biden six points over Trump in a two-way race and one point over Trump in polling that included independent candidates.
Democrat strategist Doug Sosnik said last month that the November election will be decided in seven key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
If Donald Trump succeeds in taking one of the three key battleground states, Biden would have a tough time reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win reelection. At the same time, if Biden wins all three, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he could lose the other four states and still win the election.
Shepard added that losing electoral-rich Michigan or Pennsylvania would make it difficult for the president to reach 270 electoral votes, even if he does win Nevada or Arizona.
Shepard said that, unlike previous elections, a Democrat victory in Michigan is not a foregone conclusion. Likewise, the coalition of voters Biden relied on in 2020, namely young voters, blacks, and Hispanics, “appears to be abandoning Biden.”
According to Shepard, Biden needs that coalition to win Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
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